I agree with Wakina on the NOAA forecasts - they are very inaccurate. There were several times this past season when I went out, and the winds were coming from a completely different direction, at a much different velocity than forecast. (Sometimes better than forecast, but usually worse.) I think the area forecasts are prepared in the Cleveland office, and it appears as if the forecasters don't even have a window they can look through to see what is really happening. I understand that forecasting weather is far from an exact science, but the real time buoys, and the Weather Channel or Accuweather are better indicators, especially in real time. The only drawback is the lake buoys are pulled for the winter, so those late and early season fisherman can't rely on them, but there are enough shore locations to always get a real time wind reading.

Also agree with Polar Eyes' comment - any forecast outside of a 24 hour window is an estimate, and likely to change, especially with wind and wave heights.

My most most reliable process is to check Accuweather 24 hours in advance, and the real time lake and shore buoys before I leave the house that morning. I still occasionally get surprised, but it happens much less often than when I depend on the NOAA forecasts alone.