I agree with the 5 mph = 1 ft rule. I'd add that anything with N in it will be a little more and be choppier. Anything with S will be a little less. Also, straight E or W makes for more white caps and chop.

The other thing about NOAA is - you look at it - and then look at it an hour later and a new report has posted and it has done a 180 - what's up with that? I know Lake Erie weather is difficult to predict but come on.