poor weather forcasts

[West Basin]

A lot of boaters and fishers complain about the NOAA Lake forecasts. Yes, they can be significantly off at times. But you also have to understand the forecast.

1-3 feet waves means the waves should be around 3 feet in the most open, longest fetch areas, around 1 foot in the more sheltered areas. For example with an east wind you wouldn't expect the waves to be the same 5 miles out north from Camp Perry as they would be 3/4 mile south west of Catawba Point, where it's sheltered (in the Lee) from the wind by the land. It also reflects (very generously) the variables in the forecast models. It's still a prediction and no we don't have the ability to predict in the 90% range all the time. Some forecasts can be 98% (slow moving high pressure areas or widespread fast moving low pressure systems), others only about 60% (merging weather patterns that can change by the hour) accurate. Forecasts are still rarely precise. Those who have been watching and experiencing the Lake for a long time know how to read weather maps and common situations. If you really want to get a better idea you have to look at different weather sites as soon to when you are going to leave as possible. There are thousands of weather reporting locations listed on numerous websites. Sometimes you can see the winds are already much less than predicted in the general area or reverse. Webcams are also a good source, you can't get any better than seeing the conditions live. Use the NOAA forecasts as the baseline forecast and then go get more details if you think you need them.