Weather Reports

[wakina]

NOAA weather is the last place anyone should look for future weather reports. NOAA is like the proverbial blind hog finding an acorn once in a great while. They do (maybe) get the forecast right .0001% of the time. If you travel to the lake or even go out on the lake based upon NOAA weather reports you will most likely be disappointed or worse scared shitless once those non forecast winds hit you or you are setting at home with a 10mph south wind while NOAAs forecast is calling for a NE wind of 15 plus mph! This is not a made up statement but based on my personal experience, I no longer look at the NOAA weather forecasts for that reason. I do look at the sat images as they are actual photo's of the lake and are not influenced by human error.

[island troller]

I agree 100 percent with what Wakina said regarding NOAA.

[JERRYA]

I agree. It's amazing that an "official", government site can be so consistently wrong - to the point of being useless. You would think with all the technology they could at least get close 24 hours out.

What's really funny is listening to Arnold or Ms Arnold on the NOAA weather channel while you're out on the lake and wondering if they are talking about the same lake you are looking at?????????

I live 4 hrs from the lake so a mistake is painful. After 40 yrs, I just look at the national weather pattern, the vermillion buoy, IWINDSURF, the satellite pic and make my own call - and hope for the best.

[Hoytman86]

I agree that NOAA is wrong a lot of the time, so in place of that, how do you usually equate wind speed to wave height? I know it's not an exact science, but are there general guidelines that most people follow that are usually accurate barring any additional unforeseen factors?

[island troller]

Of course wind direction is an important varible to wave height but for every 5 mph you could estimate 1 foot of wave height.

[TonyZ]

NOAA weather is the last place anyone should look for future weather reports. NOAA is like the proverbial blind hog finding an acorn once in a great while. They do (maybe) get the forecast right .0001% of the time. If you travel to the lake or even go out on the lake based upon NOAA weather reports you will most likely be disappointed or worse scared shitless once those non forecast winds hit you or you are setting at home with a 10mph south wind while NOAAs forecast is calling for a NE wind of 15 plus mph! This is not a made up statement but based on my personal experience, I no longer look at the NOAA weather forecasts for that reason. I do look at the sat images as they are actual photo's of the lake and are not influenced by human error.

I'm glad to see someone else post about questionable weather forecasts. This has been on my mind for a while. I live in Cincinnati and always have to check the weather before I head north to fish. I have lost track of how many times I have not gone because of weather forecast that turned out to be wrong. Whether it's wind, storms etc. it seems like it is ALWAYS made to sound much worse than it is. And it's not just NOAA either, but the private services too. Call me crazy but I think it's related to ratings. Think about it, they definitely overstate the weather in winter, why not the other 3 seasons also? It makes you stay glued to the TV or radio.

[JERRYA]

I agree with the 5 mph = 1 ft rule. I'd add that anything with N in it will be a little more and be choppier. Anything with S will be a little less. Also, straight E or W makes for more white caps and chop.

The other thing about NOAA is - you look at it - and then look at it an hour later and a new report has posted and it has done a 180 - what's up with that? I know Lake Erie weather is difficult to predict but come on.

[wakina]

As far as I am concerned the link at the bottom of this post is the most accurate one available for the western basin. Is it right 100% of the time, no, absolutly not but it is accurate most probably 90% of the time. It is most accurate for no futher out than 2 days, so if you are getting a favorable forcast for Saturday today then that can change considerably before that so keep checking the site as it is constantly getting updated. If I am going on Saturday I will look on thursday evening to make the call of go or no go then. If it looks good for Saturaday then I will let those who may be going with me know so they can make their plans accordingly. More than 2 days out is a crap shoot at best.

Being in my mid 60's has reduced the size of the waves that I am willing to brave to go fishing, especially trolling, anchoring for perch I will tolerate larger waves. Cut off for going trolling for me is @ 15MPH from the NE and 18 to 20 from the Southerly directions depending how far offshore I would have to go to get to the fish. It just isn't any fun trying to stand with the waves above 3 ft.

http://www.iwindsurf.com/windandwher...orecast+Graphs