Yeah, its definitely a debate to be had whether its water temp, what the calendar says, or a combination of both that determines when the fish spawn. Me personally, i compare it to deer and the rut. Peak breeding is always around the 15th of November based on moonphases and the amount of sunlight. Yes, a cold snap going into the first couple weeks of November always helps matters, but nonetheless, the deer will be breeding at that time. The same goes with fishing. I beleive with it being soo cold and the lake being ice covered, the fish will be moving into the maumee maybe a hair later than normal, but wont be that much of a difference. Just go out and fish and you'll have to find out for yourself. just my oppinion thanks