Where is technology?

[M.A.D. Eyes]

So decided to take momma and the boy on a late morning perching trip yesterday. We are 2 hours south of the lake so I try to watch the conditions as close as I can. Head up hoping for NOAA to hit it spot on with a forecast of sweet winds 10 knots or less. Beautiful run across to rattlesnake area from catawba. Get set start pulling up decent perch 8 to 9s and bam! Felt the change in wind instantly picking up harder from southwest. New it was going to get uncomfortable very soon for the family. Picked up and rolled back. Was a very short trip but no fish worth having my 11 year old say he never wants to go back. Get back to catawba ramp and gentleman who was running an older skeeter said he had to run with bilge pump on whole trip back from put in Bay area. Had a young man aboard as well. Point being that after 30 years of running this water one would think that maybe just maybe the forecasters could be much more accurate. Yes I know that mother nature is uncontrollable and always will be but..........come on technology!

[MJB]

Try using SailFlow app. Its gives you wind forcast in more detail than NOAA.

[M.A.D. Eyes]

Thanks for the heads up on that app MJB. I'll look into it.

[troy1976]

I've had good luck with iwindsurf. There's an app for smartphones. Is pretty spot on most of time

[island troller]

NOAA is the very worst for accuracy. I use iwindsurf and always have found it much more accurate then NOAA. I will never trust NOAA accuracy.

[West Basin]

Most everyone here agrees that the forecasts are not accurate often enough. But some perspective and info on the technology.

We really have it good. Forecasts are much better now than even 10 years ago. Once you learn how to read weather reports, weather patterns, and match that up with experience, you can get about 80-90 percent most of the time. Just about as good as you can get without having access to military type priority systems. The "technology" issue isn't so much with gathering the data. There are thousands of weather stations, from official NOAA sites to backyard weather stations (weather wunderground). The problem is gathering all that data, in real time, putting it into a weather model predictor, and then getting out a forecast. The data is only as good as the predicting model it is entered into. There are some private sources, a few mentioned here and more available at www.ilakeerie.com (links page). But in the end the result is the technology can't always give you a fast enough forecast to keep up with changes. Sometimes the forecasts are dead on up to 2-3 days out. Sometimes they are wrong before they are even sent out, although that's pretty rare nowadays. It all depends on the weather pattern itself. There are still situations where even the best model predictors will get it wrong on a short term - say within 2-6 hours. The best systems update the incoming data as often as possible and also draw data from different sources. Hope that helps you cope with the issue.

[M.A.D. Eyes]

Thanks west basin for all of your detailed information concerning technology and how many different models are available. Im not coping with anything I was just comparing my personal experiences over the years of fishing this great lake. Lake Erie that is. And how NOAA has been a problematic source of keeping the community of fisherman informed of quickly changing weather conditions. I'm not aware of any of the apps or links that have been suggested coming across my vhf ship to shore marine radio. One would think that if a broadcast is going to be public information on updated detailed weather conditions through the means of a marine radio then it should be substantially sound enough to alert mariners in that area of those conditions. When on the water not all boaters are gaureenteed to have a specialized piece of electronic equipment such as a smart phone nor is there a promise of reception to that piece. So to kind of put things into bigger perspective....I had mentioned initially when I joined this forum a few days ago that I had been fishing Lake Erie for 30 years. Yes it is true. My father started a charter business in 1983 and ran it through 2000. We started out of clinton reef marina in port clinton then moved down towards the drawbridge to Brands marina. After many seasons we decided to move to west harbor to midway marina. At one point we had 2 boats running daily 6 pack charters both morning and afternoon trips. I was a graduate of Port clinton high school and then concluded my education at kent state University. After my father's passing at the age of 62 the business was sold. Even after all the memories of my father and our boats I have always chartered with many other captains in the western basin until this season when my family decided they wanted another boat to enjoy this awesome resource that we have so close. So I guess in a way I could say that I am coping with something. So now that I'm back on the big water I have a tendency to think back and say to myself.........yep they missed it again. Started out catching eyes and perch at the ripe age of 10 and nearing my 44 birthday so I guess I might as well keep going!

[wakina]

Here is a link to a thread from earlier this year!

http://community.walleye.com/showthr...1898#post51898

Here are the links that I use and try to average them together to get a fairly accurate picture of wind direction and speeds.

https://weather.com/weather/today/l/USOH0783:1:US

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/por...-forecast/1169

http://www.fishweather.com/map#41.34...828,9,1,!881,2

http://www.iwindsurf.com/windandwher...orecast+Graphs

[LEfriend]

By chance, last week I ended up next to a NOAA guy on a ferry ride to a meeting at Stone Lab. Turned out he was NOAA's chief hydrologist and in charge of wind and wave forecasts for Great Lakes. When he found out I was a fisherman, talk turned to the wave forecasts. Very nice guy (and smart guy) and he was very interested in how I used the forecasts, what formats I liked, and what was important data. I shared how important a good forecast is to someone traveling a distance to the lake as I do, and in making a go/no go decision, and some of the frustrations fisherman/boaters see. He asked a lot of questions. He also shared several things that I learned:

1. NOAA is developing on a new wave forecast computer model. They are aware the wave forecasts need improvement and working on that.

2. The Western Basin is the hardest place in the entire Great Lakes to forecast.

3. The most important factor in an accurate wave forecast model is a very precise wind direction reading. Unlike land, which has multiple weather stations in every county, and real time information, on the lake they have to forecast from a much more limited number of stations and real time data bases.

4. They are moving to give a wave range, rather than a single wave height in their forecast.

5. With respect the buoy readings, when they give a wave height of say 1.5 feet at Lorain buoy, that buoy reading represents the "upper 2/3rds of the average waves". So with 1.5 reading one would increase it by 1/3 which would give a height of 1.5 plus .5 equals 2. But then that is the "average waves" so some would be bigger than 2 foot. Thus the rough rule of thumb many use to take the reading and double it is probably a pretty good figure. A 1.5 reading would be 1-3's or 2-3's.

6. Lastly I asked him about IWindsurf and found it interesting that they base their forecasts on NOAA's data.

It was an interesting conversation and the gentleman gave me his card and asked me to share any ideas or concerns I had with him.

[Capt. Ted]

This a great discussion. Several good points have been made.
All of us are effected by the weather. Several years ago, I read an internal study by NOAA concluding that they are correct 20% of the time. That is why I have concluded that it is our responsibility to understand all the information available to us, and factor in our own variables, i.e. our boat, our crew, our location, our style of fishing, and make adjustments accordingly. The problems NOAA has (they're getting better) are: sometimes too little real time info, and predicting too large of an area (how many times has your neighbor got rain, and you get none? Was NOAA wrong?). Also, the computer models are maturing. They are getting better as they record history, predict and record history, again and again.
When I look at the iwindsurf, click on the NOAA marine weather, and look at my own radar, I make my own conclusions and proceed cautiously. But I still schedule my trips, days, weeks, and even years ahead. When someone tells me, "let's see how the weather is", I tell them I don't have that luxury. You either schedule or not. Right, my son? Then we deal with it.
A couple pieces of advise I'd like to share:
A lawyer, who had his captain's license told me, if you read all the laws you would never be a captain.
Another old salt, after his buddy explained all the factors that affect steelhead fishing, barometric pressure, temperature, water flow, the sun and moon, water color, on and on, gave me the best advise ever; You don't catch fish unless your line is wet.
And finally to M.A.D. Eyes, maybe you will appreciate this?; After years of chartering all over the Great Lakes and Gulf of Mexico, my wife made me promise when we bought our last boat that I would not charter. She says I need to take out family and friends, and enjoy the experience myself.
So, gather all the info available, assess your circumstances, and get out on the water. Enjoy it, and share the experiences with others. Don't get hung up on how they got it right, or wrong, it will drive you crazy. Remember you are primarily relying on the government. Be safe, and have fun.